Rethinking Pitch Counts — Are We Measuring the Wrong Thing?
For decades, pitch counts have been baseball’s go-to method for preventing arm injuries. Youth leagues, high schools, and even professional teams have relied on strict pitch limits to protect players from overuse and reduce UCL injuries.
But what if we’ve been looking at the wrong numbers all along?
Research is beginning to reveal that pitch counts alone don’t tell the full story of injury risk. A 100-pitch outing isn’t the same for every pitcher — factors like velocity, biomechanics, fatigue, and recovery time all play a massive role in determining actual arm stress.
So, are we measuring the wrong thing? In this blog, we’ll break down:
— The origins of pitch counts and why they were introduced.
— The flaws in traditional pitch limits and what they don’t account for.
— Emerging alternatives — from AI-driven workload tracking to elbow stress monitoring.
It’s time to rethink how we manage pitcher health and move beyond a one-size-fits-all approach.
1. The History of Pitch Counts — Why They Were Introduced
Where Did 100 Pitches Come From?
The 100-pitch count “rule” dates back to the 1980s and 90s, when managers and medical professionals began noticing a link between overuse and elbow injuries. Coaches started limiting starters to roughly 100 pitches per game, believing it was the threshold before injury risk spiked.
Pitch Count Restrictions in Youth Baseball
Organizations like Little League Baseball and USA Baseball implemented strict pitch limits for young athletes, introducing rules such as:
• Ages 9–10 → Max 75 pitches/game
• Ages 11–12 → Max 85 pitches/game
• Ages 13–16 → Max 95 pitches/game
On the surface, these rules seemed to help — studies showed a drop in catastrophic injuries in youth pitchers. But were they really addressing the root cause of UCL injuries?
2. The Problem with Traditional Pitch Counts
While pitch counts provide a basic guideline, they fail to account for many key risk factors that contribute to arm injuries.
A. Not All Pitches Are Equal
Throwing 100 pitches at 80 mph puts a dramatically different level of stress on the UCL than throwing 100 pitches at 98 mph.
• A pitcher throwing at high velocity may reach dangerous stress levels much earlier in a game, even with a low pitch count.
• Meanwhile, a pitcher with efficient mechanics may handle 110–120 pitches without excessive strain.
Key Insight: A 100-pitch limit assumes every pitcher is the same — but in reality, the intensity of each pitch matters more than the total number.
B. Pitch Counts Ignore Cumulative Fatigue
Fatigue is one of the biggest predictors of injury, yet traditional pitch counts don’t account for accumulated stress over days, weeks, or months.
• A pitcher throwing 100 pitches once a week may recover well.
• A pitcher throwing 80 pitches three times a week may be at far greater risk, even though their per-game pitch count is lower.
This is why many UCL injuries happen gradually, not in a single game — the ligament weakens over time due to accumulated stress.
C. No Consideration for Recovery Time
Not all pitchers recover at the same rate.
• A pitcher who gets poor sleep, is dehydrated, or lacks proper nutrition may not be fully recovered, even with mandated rest days.
• Traditional pitch limits fail to track how well an athlete’s body is actually recovering between outings.
New Research Alert: Studies show that pitchers who get less than 6 hours of sleep are 1.7x more likely to suffer an arm injury — yet pitch count rules don’t factor in recovery quality at all.
3. What Should We Be Measuring Instead?
If total pitch count isn’t the best indicator of injury risk, what should we be tracking?
A. Elbow Stress Tracking — The Future of Workload Management
New technology allows us to measure the actual stress placed on the UCL, rather than just counting pitches.
- MotusTHROW sensors: Worn on the forearm, these measure valgus torque on the elbow in real time.
- Biomechanical analysis tools: AI-powered cameras (like Hawkeye & Rapsodo) analyze mechanical inefficiencies that increase stress.
- Game-Changer: Pitchers could be removed based on elbow stress, not just pitch count — a huge shift in injury prevention strategy.
B. Fatigue & Recovery Monitoring
- Heart Rate Variability (HRV) trackers (e.g., Whoop bands) measure recovery state — a low HRV indicates higher injury risk.
- Grip strength testing before games can reveal early signs of fatigue, helping adjust workload before an injury occurs.
C. Throwing Intensity vs. Total Throws
Instead of counting pitches, teams are now tracking total throwing workload, including:
— Pre-game warm-ups
— Between-inning throws
— Bullpen sessions
Why It Matters: A pitcher who throws 100 pitches in a game but also throws 50 warm-up pitches is experiencing way more stress than pitch counts reflect.
4. The Role of AI & Wearable Technology in Pitcher Health
AI is revolutionizing injury prevention by analyzing motion and predicting risk.
A. AI-Powered Fatigue Prediction Models
• AI can now analyze arm angle, velocity, and fatigue signs to predict when a pitcher is approaching dangerous stress levels.
• MLB teams use TrackMan & PitchAI to track mechanical changes before an injury occurs.
B. Smart Compression Sleeves
• ArmCare.com sleeves detect muscle fatigue and workload trends, giving teams an early warning system before pitchers overwork their arms.
Future Outlook: Within 5–10 years, teams may stop using fixed pitch counts altogether, instead relying on real-time stress data to manage workloads.
5. What This Means for the Future of Baseball
The shift away from traditional pitch counts and toward data-driven workload management could transform the way pitchers train and recover.
Personalized Workload Limits → No more one-size-fits-all pitch counts.
Real-Time Stress Monitoring → Pulling pitchers before they hit dangerous fatigue levels.
Better Recovery Strategies → Using wearables & AI to optimize rest periods.
Final Thought: The future of baseball isn’t about counting pitches — it’s about measuring the stress that actually causes injuries.
Key Takeaways
— Pitch counts are outdated — They don’t account for velocity, fatigue, or recovery quality.
— The future is stress tracking — Wearable tech and AI will replace one-size-fits-all pitch limits.
— Baseball’s injury prevention revolution is happening NOW.
Stay tuned next week for Blog #12, where we’ll explore the biggest myths about arm injuries and what the data actually says.
About Dr. Ahmad: https://www.drahmadsportsmedicine.com/our-practice/about-dr-ahmad/
New York Yankees: https://www.drahmadsportsmedicine.com/our-practice/ny-yankees-team-physician/
